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VMI and ADI data for all 2018-19 NBA games is now included in the RotoGuru/DHD NBA master file. These two data elements have now been appended to the end of each player data line.
The NBA master file is still available for free, but will eventually convert to a premium basis, available only by subscription. Subscription details will be announced later in November.
Once the file transitions to a premium basis, ADI and VMI values for the current game day will be restricted to those who are also members at basketballVMI.com. (Note that all baseballVMI.com members will automatically be grandfathered with basketballVMI membership for this season.) Historical ADI and VMI data will be unrestricted (i.e., available to all).
(Note: ADI and VMI data are not available for prior seasons.)
Effects of altitude on a basketball three-point shot
Sat, 03 Nov 2018 (by Clifton Neeley, Creator of Baseball VMI and Basketball VMI - Visual Memory Index)
As stated earlier, most people are aware of the differences in flight distance of a baseball, football, or golf ball between sea level and the altitude of Denver, Colorado, which represents the extreme altitude for many professional sports. However, few have given much thought to the three-point shot in basketball as it relates to all the teams in the NBA and College basketball.
Recently, the Golden State Warriors visited Denver, Colorado for a matchup of the best 3 point shooting team in recent history vs the Nuggets who have long been the worst 3 point shooting team in NBA history. Neither team is used to playing NBA basketball in Denver’s higher altitude. It showed.
The Warriors made 7 of 29 shots for a 24.1 percentage when they normally are almost twice that production clip. The Nuggets, who are playing better to begin this season, made 6 of 32 shots for a paltry 18.8 percentage. Both teams had done some shooting at Denver and Utah, but it did not solve all the issues that come up during game time action.
The ADI that we present at www.basketballvmi.com gauges primarily the barometric pressure and the VMI that we present not only on our website, but will also provide on this site as well, gauges the conditions that are normal for the two teams in any NBA match-up. The Warriors were a plus 14.84 for that game, meaning they were used to shooting about 3-1/2 inches longer to hit their 3-pointers. Not all the players adjusted well, and this is the purpose of the VMI for Basketball. It should tell you something about the additional opportunities for offensive and defensive rebounds, as well as when a team is “out of their element.”
"Actual Barometric Pressure" stated in "Inches of Mercury"
One of the most significant issues for basketball people to understand is actual air pressure. The hidden truth about pressure is inadvertently hidden from the public by the media, because meteorologists speak of barometric pressure from a "sea level" measurement. Meteorologists must present a clear picture of air pressure highs and lows so that they can keep a watch on the small daily pressure changes within "all" altitudes across the nation and around the world. Therefore, they have adjusted the standard air pressure at all locations to "sea level", but this does not represent the "actual pressure" for the elevation.
In order to adjust the standard sea level pressure measurement of 29.92 inches of mercury to the actual pressure at differing altitudes, one must subtract approximately 1 inch of mercury for every 1,000 feet of altitude. Therefore Phoenix, AZ would normally read approximately 28.92 actual barometric pressure; Las Vegas, NV at 2500 feet in elevation would normally read about 27.00 inches of mercury; Lubbock, TX air pressure would be represented at about 26.50 inches of mercury; and Denver, CO normal air pressure is actually measured at 25.42 inches of mercury.
The basketball is larger than that used in most sports projectiles and is full of air, so is light in weight. On a three-point shot and without spin, it does not "knuckle" in flight because it does not have any large smooth surfaces. It probably does not lift due to backward spin either, because there are no exterior protrusions (such as seams) and the lack of speed would also not allow it to lift in flight.
The thrust at the release point is the fastest speed of the shot and, of course, due to gravity, slows as it reaches the top of the arc. The speed then increases from that point to the basketball rim. The air resistance is applied from the beginning of the shot all the way to the rim, therefore the difference in amount of air resistance is the reason the distance of the flight changes from climate to climate. See our discussion about "Air Weight" for a better understanding of the difference between altitudinal air densities.
An interesting side note: When it comes to media discussions of air pressure in weather related events, such as hurricanes, Meteorologists convert the conversation from "inches of mercury" to pressure in "milibars." Why? Well, it keeps the non-professionals guessing as "Terminology" is the great separation between layman and professional. It may be easier to drop the decimals off "inches of mercury" and use milibars instead, but essentially they express the same air pressure.
Sea level "inches of mercury" actual pressure is stated as 29.92 hg (inches of mercury) which can also be stated as 1013 Milibars, as they are the same. Another expression for the same air pressure is 14.7 psi (pounds per square inch).
So at sea level actual pressure is 29.92 hg, or 1013 pa (milibars in pascal), or 14.7 psi. However, actual pressure at Denver, CO at 5,200 feet elevation is 25.10 hg, or 850 pa, or 12.33 psi.
It is this "850 pa" that I want to point out at Denver, Colorado which is standard air pressure for that altitude. Pressure inside a hurricane periodically hits 850 or so milibars, because the centrifugal force applied by wind at the exterior edge pulls the molecules apart with a huge force causing the air pressure to drop to the same as in Denver, but the outside air pressure is 1013 milibars. This pressure differential is what causes extreme damage and extremely high winds. Does that give you pause as it relates to a basketball flying through air in Denver as opposed to air at sea level? It does for me.
Game stats are up
Wed, 17 Oct 2018 (by RotoGuru)
Reporting is now up for regular season NBA player stats.
Daily Fantasy Point Recaps are available for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Yahoo DFS. You can choose to view players sorted by position (default), or in boxscore order. In addition to the standard html output, SCSV (semi-colon delimited values) formatting is available as an option.
As in past seasons, the master file and the SCSV version of the daily recaps will eventually be available only via premium subscription. But for at least the next four weeks, they will be provided for free.
Sat, 13 Oct 2018 (by RotoGuru)
I'm in the process of resetting all of the various DHD/RotoGuru Hoops reporting for the 2018-19 NBA season
As of today, I have tentative working versions of the following:
Sortable Stats, with DFS salary data for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo DFS. Note that I am only capturing salary data for the "Classic" format with the full daily slate of games. I will not be capturing salary data for single-game formats. Note that if you choose the trailing 7, 15, or 30 day periods, preseason games will be included. If you select "full season", preseason games will be excluded. (So if you want to see any data prior to the start of the season, don't select "full season".)
As in the past several years, I will be producing the premium NBA master data file. This will hopefully be available by Wednesday, October 17. The file will be provided for free for at least the first four weeks of the NBA season. Subscription details will be announced around the beginning of November. (Remember that a separate subscription is required for each NBA season.)
Daily point recaps and the Stat Summarizer will be available by sometime on Wednesday as well. Stay tuned for further announcements as these come online.
As always, if you notice anything that looks to be incorrect, please send an email to email@example.com.
Thu, 11 Oct 2018 (by RotoGuru)
Special announcement from www.BasketballVMI.com:
As many of you already know from having read "Baseball Unraveled" by Clifton Neeley--Basketball is also affected by air resistance.
Since the NBA season is right around the corner, VMI is introducing "BasketballVMI." Within a few days of the opening of the regular NBA Season in 2018, we should be able to present the schedule ahead of game time and track the ADI and VMI for all the teams.
What will be the "Real World" focus for Basketball as it relates to NBA teams?
For Basketball, the issue is not the trajectory, but the distance of flight of the three point shot. Most everyone knows that golf balls, footballs, and other projectiles fly further in higher altitude locations than at sea level venues. Taking this concept a step further, we know that every venue between high altitudes and sea level, such as Oklahoma, Arizona, Atlanta, Texas, Minnesota and others are affected by air resistance differently. Can this be affecting 3 point shooting around the league when teams transition between those venues? How does good or bad 3 point shooting affect the other aspects of the game, such as rebounding and put-backs?
For the three point shot, the sensitive touch of the shooter is highly affected if what the shooter sees and muscle memory remembers as the amount of wrist and finger snap changes due to air resistance either holding the ball back a few inches, or freeing the ball to fly further than he/she is used to.
Since most, if not all, NBA and College basketball is played indoors, then temperature and humidity are not significant factors under normal playing conditions. However, "Actual" barometric pressure is a significant factor verified by Dr. Robert Adair, Professor Emeritus in Physics and author of The Physics of Baseball, Yale University.
We at Air Resistance Technologies will present for you a VMI based on a formula by Clifton Neeley which identifies when a team of players will be used to a shot flying 1 to 6 inches further or shorter than they are used to feeling and therefore affecting the overall shooting percentages, rebounding opportunities and put-back opportunities.
2017-18 Premium Data as of December 20
Wed, 06 Dec 2017 (by RotoGuru)
Starting December 20, 2017, some data will be available only via premium subscription. For details on which data reports and formats are impacted, please click HERE.
Master data file is up
Wed, 18 Oct 2017 (by RotoGuru)
The master data file for the 2017-18 NBA season is now up. After November (exact date TBD), this will become a premium subscription file. But during November, everyone can access it for free.
With the NBA season starting soon, the various DHD/RotoGuru NBA tools are coming back to life. Here are some of the reports that have been activated so far:
Sortable stats: If you select the option for the last 30 days, you’ll get preseason stats. (Defaulting to "Full Season" gets you only regular season stats, which are all zero right now.) Season-opening DFS salaries are provided for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. (Preseason salaries are not provided.) If a player salary has not yet been listed at a DFS site, then that player will be shown with a position of X and a salary of $0. If you click on any linked player name, you’ll get some preseason game details.
Daily fantasy points: Since I’m not tracking preseason salary data (if any even exists), all players show up as unlisted and unsalaried. But you can at least see some of the statistical parameters. And if you elect to sort by game, you’ll get results organized more-or-less in boxscore order.
The master file for the coming season is not yet available, and will not include preseason data. That file will be created once the regular season begins, and will be free for the first month or so.
If you notice any apparent glitches, please let me know (firstname.lastname@example.org). In particular, preseason data is tricky in that some non-NBA teams are involved, so that does create some data anomalies that will not be present during the regular season. Nevertheless, I hope to have most of the relevant updated and available.
Data at a premium
Sat, 21 Jan 2017 (by RotoGuru)
Beginning February 1, some of the text versions of various reports will become premium-only, and subject to a subscription fee.
Accessing these 2016-17 NBA premium data files after the end of January requires a one-time $25 subscription.
To subscribe, please click HERE. Payment may be made by PayPal or by credit card.
Before subscribing, please review the Terms of service. By subscribing, you agree to abide by these terms.
NBA Fantasy Update
Tue, 20 Dec 2016 (by Adam Hayes)
Fantasy sports are always going to be unpredictable no matter how much studying you do before the season starts. Some superstar players are going to disappoint and other players are going to come out of nowhere to deliver great value to their potential fantasy owners. Making adjustments to the way you value each player during the season is the only way you will be able to compete with the other teams in your league. These are the biggest underachievers and surprise breakout stars in fantasy basketball this year.
Disappointing Stars Worth Dropping
Nikola Mirotic Nikola Mirotic was expected to have a big year after a performing well in the final two months of last season. These high expectations got Mirotic drafted around the 7th round of most fantasy basketball drafts. While he started the season off fine, Mirotic's biggest problem this season has been a lack of playing time. New coach Fred Hoiberg simply does not trust Nikola Mirotic on the court right now. This has caused his playing time and scoring to drop every month of the season. You may have spent a high draft pick on him, but it is time to find someone delivering more playing time and production than Nikola Mirotic.
Aaron Gordon It may seem odd to recommend dropping Aaron Gordon after he just had a huge game with 33 points and seven rebounds, but that performance was an anomaly for Gordon this season. Gordon actually only had 32 points in his previous four games before his huge performance against the Clippers a few days ago. Aaron Gordon is one of the most talented young players in the NBA, but he is far too inconsistent to help fantasy owners on a consistent basis. His playing time issues were also supposed to end when head coach Scott Skiles quit in the off-season, but he is still struggling to get consistent playing time under new coach Frank Vogel.
Must-Add Surprise Players
Maurice Harkless No player has surprised more than Maurice Harkless this season, but he is still available in most fantasy leagues. Harkless has been a great source of production from the small forward position because he is averaging more than 31 minutes of playing time per game. He may not be one of the most talented players in the league, but the extensive playing time is allowing Harkless to average more than 12 points, five rebounds and one steal a game. He may not be known by everyone right now, but it will not be long before Harkless is owned in every league if he continues his great season.
Thabo Sefolosha Thabo Sefolosha has always been one of the most underappreciated players in the NBA, and his balanced game is finally rewarding fantasy owners this season. Sefolosha received limited playing time during his first two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, but that has recently changed thanks to the poor play of Kent Bazemore and Kyle Korver. Sefolosha is getting ignored by most fantasy owners because of he only averages just under 8 points a game, but his ability to help in every stat category is the main reason you want him on your team.
Adam Hayes hails from New York City where he is a marketing associate by day and blogger by night. He is a self proclaimed fantasy guru that spends too much time perfecting his lineup. One summer Adam visited 21 of 30 MLB stadiums (and only caught one foul ball).
Free data period extended
Mon, 28 Nov 2016 (by RotoGuru)
I had originally announced that the master NBA data file would move to a premium (pay) service at the beginning of December.
I've decided to postpone that date, primarily because I didn't get the programming set up yet. When I'm ready, I'll post a notice here, and I'll also email all subscribers of last year's file.
RotoBaller DFS Advice: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Lineup Picks (11/18/16)
10 games make up Friday night's slate, most of which have a ton of daily fantasy appeal. Two offensive powerhouses faces off in the state of California while the new-look Los Angeles Lakers will have one of their toughest tests this season against the San Antonio Spurs.
Russell Westbrook will also take the floor as the Thunder welcome the Brooklyn Nets to Oklahoma City. He should be considered every time he laces up.
These are my daily fantasy NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 11/18/16. I try to only advise players I believe will outperform expectations and the players I advise are players in my lineup so if it all goes downhill, I'll be tumbling down right next to you. Let's get rolling…
FanDuel DFS Guards
Brandon Knight - SG, @ IND ($4,800) Proving to be much of a disappointment in seasonal leagues, and an unreliable option for daily fantasy, Brandon Knight finally exploded after nearly three weeks of inconsistency. Knight dropped 32 points in his last contest against the Denver Nuggets, including three from downtown on five attempts.
Infrequently pulling the trigger from behind the arc this season, Knight displayed a proclivity for the long ball before going down with injury last season. In order to return to form, Knight will need to become a three-point threat again. Lucky for him, the Indiana Pacers have allowed the fourth most three pointers made in the NBA. He's inexpensive and will look to build off his best performance of the young season.
Jeff Teague - PG, vs PHO ($6,500) Bringing the ball up on the other side of the court in the Phoenix/Indiana matchup will be Jeff Teague. Teague has been a solid addition to the Pacers this season and has dished out six or more assists in nine of 12 contests this season. The Suns have allowed 23.3 opposing assists per game this season, 10th most in the league.
While Teague has proved to be generous in the backcourt, his point totals have also stood out. He has dropped 20 or more points in five games in the early going, and is capable of breaking out for 30 on any given night. Luckily for him, the Suns allow the most points in the league; a dismal 116 per contest.
Also Consider: Russell Westbrook - PG, vs BK ($11,400), E'Twaun Moore - SG, vs POR ($4,500)
The season is still young so there are things that will eventually change. But for right now, it is a completely legitimate question on whether or not you should draft LeBron James or DeMar DeRozan. Despite DeRozan’s blistering start to the season, he’s still not putting up King James numbers, but the difference is Nate Robinson small. If these two aren’t your favorites to build around, Damian Lillard and Karl Anthony-Towns will gladly take their places.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 11/15/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays on DraftKings.
DraftKings DFS Guards
Ricky Rubio – PG, CHA ($5,700) In Rubio’s two games back from injury he has total of 10 rebounds, 16 assists, and four steals. People still seem concerned about the fact that Rubio has trouble hitting the backboard with his shot, but he is one of the best guards in the league at rebounding, getting steals, and dishing the ball. The Kris Dunn experiment has to be scaled back so he can catch up with the speed of the game. In the interim Rubio should get his usual minutes and should put up his usually reliable production. Before he goes on an assists streak and gets priced in a different category it would be worth getting on the Rubio train as he showcases his skills to eventually become trade bait for Minnesota.
Lou Williams – SG, BKN ($5,600) Right now Lou Williams is having the best year of his 12-year career, but he’s still consistently being priced less than or as much as his two backcourt mates, D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. All three guards have created a decent rotation of big time shots and timely drives to the basket. But as of now, Williams is the one with the most value because he consistently gives the greatest return on investment.
Kent Bazemore – SG/SF, @MIA ($5,000) In order, Bazemore’s last five scoring totals are 0, 20, 25, 3, and 17. He has epitomized inconsistency to start the season. But when you couple his total average of 11 points per game with three rebounds, three assists, and two steals per game it begins to become clear why he’s priced where he is. Paying 5k for a player that scores no points is the nightmare of all daily fantasy players. The risk is always there with Bazemore but he’s poised to have the best season of his career. If you can be the one to guess which nights he puts up his big numbers than you deserve every cent of your winnings.
With eight games on the slate for tonight, there should be no reason why you can't find enough value to spend up on a few superstars. There is only one superstar I will be spending up on but we will get to James Harden later...
These are my daily fantasy NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 11/14/16. I try to only advise players I believe will outperform expectations and the players I advise are players in my lineup so if it all goes downhill, I'll be tumbling down right next to you. Let's get rolling…
FanDuel DFS Guards
Jamal Crawford - SG, vs. BKN ($4,100) I was split between either J.J. Reddick ($4,100) or Jamal Crawford and decided to go with Crawford because of his ability to get shots much easier. Reddick has been a tad quiet this year as the Clippers starting shooting guard and both carry a decent bit of risk. That being said, you know you need to risk a little bit to get the big pay out but either one is a fine play tonight. The Clippers have been dominating and expect the lower-valued Clippers to get the most minutes tonight.
J.J. Barea - PG, at NY ($5,800) I hate going against the Knicks because I feel like a bad fan, but I need to be honest to all my RotoBaller supporters. The Knicks are garbage on defense, probably because Jeff Hornacek doesn't practice defense, but anywhoooo... J.J Barea has capitalized on his starts for the Mavericks and he has plenty of experience to handle a full workload. With Deron Williams out, J.J. is a much more consistent option with a good price tag, especially if your contemplating 'Streaky' Seth Curry.
Also Consider: James Harden - SG, vs. PHI ($11,600) Yeah it is Philadelphia but James Harden feasts on these match-ups.
I'm in the process of migrating to a new server. The old server was over 4 years old, and had been experiencing some signs of hardware degradation.
The plan is to cut over to the new server on Sunday afternoon (Nov 13). I'm not expecting any noticeable glitches, but if you do detect anything abnormal on Sunday afternoon or evening, please feel free to send me an alert (email@example.com).